Breakfast With Dave - March 18, 2022 (Page 10)
Powell Says No Recession… Best to Fade That Call!
Jay Powell, March 16th, 2022: “The probability of a recession within the next year is not particularly elevated.”
Jay Powell, August 21st, 2021: “Inflation at these levels is, of course, a cause for concern. But that concern is tempered by a number of factors that suggest that these elevated readings are likely to prove temporary.”
Jay Powell, October 3rd, 2018: “[…] interest rates are still accommodative, but we’re gradually moving to a place where they will be neutral […] we may go past neutral. But we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.”
Ben Bernanke, March 28th, 2007: “At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.”
Alan Greenspan, August 30, 2002: “The notion that a well-timed incremental tightening could have been calibrated to prevent the late 1990s bubble is almost surely an illusion.”
Alan Greenspan, August 21st, 1990: “[…] namely, that those who argue that we are already in a recession I think are reasonably certain to be wrong in the sense that we do have weekly data that suggest, as others have mentioned, that up until perhaps a week or so ago there was no evidence of deterioration […]”
Going Mobile
“I’m going home
“And when I want to go home, I’m going mobile” - The Who, 1971
The housing bubble and spectacular erosion in first-time buyer affordability (entry-level buying continues to account for a depressed sub-30% share of resale activity in the traditional market for single-family homes) have spawned a budding bull market in mobile, manufactured and pre-fab homes. Shipments are up a solid 7% on a YoY basis and are at their best level since 2006, the last time a real estate bubble caused a major affordability constraint.